Evidence Library

Van Dongen et al. (2003), chronic sleep restriction and neurobehavioral performance

[2] Belenky et al., Patterns of Performance Degradation and Restoration During Sleep Restriction, 2003.

[3] Banks et al., Neurobehavioral Dynamics Following Chronic Sleep Restriction, 2010.

[1] LBMA, Clearing Data: August 2026 Gold Transfers.

[2] LBMA, Daily Trade Reporting Data: October 2026 Gold OTC Turnover.

CME Group, Precious Metals futures and options contract overview

[1] World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026, July Erratum.

World Gold Council (2026), Central-bank gold demand Q2 2026

World Gold Council (2026), Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026

[1] CME Group, What Is Contango and Backwardation?

[3] CME Group, Gold Futures contract and market resources

London Bullion Market Association, Precious Metals benchmark pricing

[1] World Gold Council. Gold ETF holdings and flows: definitions and methodology.

[2] U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 2026 Commitments of Traders Release Schedule.

[3] CME Group, Gold Futures contract and market resources

[1] Mellers et al., Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters, 2015.

[2] Atanasov et al., Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs Prediction Polls, 2016.

[3] Gneiting and Raftery, Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction and Estimation, 2007.

Barber and Odean (2008), attention and investor buying behavior

[2] Da, Engelberg and Gao, In Search of Attention, 2011.

[3] Hirshleifer, Lim and Teoh, Driven to Distraction, 2009.

[1] Thaler and Johnson, Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even, Management Science, 1990.

[2] Shiv et al., Investment Behavior and the Negative Side of Emotion, Psychological Science, 2005.

[3] Gneezy and Potters, An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods, QJE, 1997.

[1] Lorenz et al., How Social Influence Can Undermine the Wisdom of Crowd Effect, PNAS, 2011.

[2] Muchnik, Aral and Taylor, Social Influence Bias: A Randomized Experiment, Science, 2013.

[3] Salganik, Dodds and Watts, Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market, Science, 2006.

[1] Cronbach and Meehl, Construct Validity in Psychological Tests

[2] Campbell and Fiske, Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix

[3] Flake, Pek and Hehman, Construct Validation in Social and Personality Research

[1] Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science (2015).

[1] Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science.

[3] Button et al., Power failure: why small sample size undermines neuroscience reliability (2013).

[1] Kahneman and Beatty, Pupil Diameter and Load on Memory, Science (1966).

[2] Mathôt et al., The Pupillary Light Response Reveals the Focus of Covert Visual Attention (2013).

[3] Ajasse et al., Effects of Pupillary Responses to Luminance and Attention on Visual Spatial Discrimination (2018).

[1] Varoquaux, Cross-validation failure: Small sample sizes lead to large error bars (2018).

[2] Poldrack et al., Scanning the horizon: transparent and reproducible neuroimaging research (2017).

[3] Button et al., Power failure: why small sample size undermines neuroscience reliability (2013).

[1] Notebaert et al., Post-error slowing: an orienting account, experiment

[2] Danielmeier et al., medial frontal cortex predicts post-error visual and motor adaptations

[3] Danielmeier and Ullsperger, Post-error adjustments: behavioral mechanisms

Ariga and Lleras (2011), brief breaks and vigilance maintenance

[2] Berman, Jonides and Kaplan, the cognitive benefits of interacting with nature

[3] Gamble, Howard and Howard, viewing nature pictures and executive attention experiment

[1] Steinhauser et al., Cognitive control under stress: task-set reconfiguration experiment

[2] Stress and Cognitive Flexibility: cortisol, updating and switching experiment

[3] Acute stress impairs cognitive flexibility in men, not women: experimental findings

[1] Sleep inertia and decision-making performance, laboratory awakening experiment

[2] Chronic sleep restriction greatly magnifies performance decrements immediately after awakening

[3] Cerebral correlates of sleep inertia using behavioral, EEG and fMRI measures

[1] Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026

Federal Reserve Board, October 2026 calendar and FOMC meeting

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed constant-maturity yield DFII10

[1] CME Group, Open Interest: explanation of outstanding futures contracts

[2] CFTC, Commitments of Traders: methodology and weekly reported positions

[3] CME Group, Gold Futures contract and market resources

[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation: September 2026, published October 2, 2026

[2] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program

[3] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, PAYEMS data series sourced from BLS

[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Indexes Overview.

[2] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.

[3] U.S. Treasury. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed constant-maturity yield DFII10

[1] Johnson and Goldstein, Do Defaults Save Lives? Study of default effects

[2] Madrian and Shea, The Power of Suggestion: default settings in 401(k) savings behavior

[1] Tversky and Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

[1] Tetlock, Accountability and Complexity of Thought, experimental social psychology

[2] Lerner and Tetlock, Accounting for the Effects of Accountability: research review

[1] Tversky and Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

[1] Dietvorst, Simmons and Massey, Algorithm Aversion (2015), five experiments

[2] Logg, Minson and Moore, Algorithm Appreciation (2019)

[3] Dzindolet et al., The Perceived Utility of Human and Automated Aids in a Visual Detection Task (2002)