Evidence Library

[1] Tversky and Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

[2] Genesove and Mayer, Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market

Odean (1998), investors reluctant to realize losses

[1] Greenland, S., Pearl, J., & Robins, J. M. (1999). Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research. Epidemiology, 10, 37–48.

[2] Pearl, J. (1995). Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometrika, 82, 669–688.

[3] Hernán, M. A., & Robins, J. M. (2020). Causal Inference: What If. Author-maintained book and materials.

[1] Kaufman, S., Rosset, S., Perlich, C., & Stitelman, O. (2012). Leakage in data mining: formulation, detection, and avoidance. ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data.

[2] Scikit-learn developers. Common pitfalls and recommended practices: data leakage.

[3] Kapoor, S., & Narayanan, A. (2023). Leakage and the reproducibility crisis in machine-learning-based science. Patterns, 4, 100804.

[1] Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science.

[2] Gelman, A., & Loken, E. (2014). The Statistical Crisis in Science. American Scientist, 102, 460.

[3] Benjamini, Y., & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the False Discovery Rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS Series B, 57, 289–300.

[1] Nosek, B. A., Ebersole, C. R., DeHaven, A. C., & Mellor, D. T. (2018). The preregistration revolution. PNAS, 115, 2600–2606.

[2] Chambers, C. D. (2013). Registered Reports: a new publishing initiative at Cortex. Cortex, 49, 609–610.

[3] Center for Open Science. Welcome to Registrations & Preregistrations. OSF Support.

[1] Garfinkel, S. N., et al. (2015). Knowing your own heart: distinguishing interoceptive accuracy from interoceptive awareness. Biological Psychology.

[2] Critchley, H. D., et al. (2004). Neural systems supporting interoceptive awareness. Nature Neuroscience, 7, 189–195.

[3] Ring, C., et al. (2015). Effects of heartbeat feedback on beliefs about heart rate and heartbeat counting: a cautionary tale about interoceptive awareness.

[1] Lieberman, M. D., et al. (2007). Putting feelings into words: affect labeling disrupts amygdala activity in response to affective stimuli. Psychological Science.

[2] Kircanski, K., Lieberman, M. D., & Craske, M. G. (2012). Feelings into words: contributions of language to exposure therapy. Psychological Science.

[3] Tabibnia, G., Lieberman, M. D., & Craske, M. G. (2008). The lasting effect of words on feelings. Emotion.

[1] Drake, C., Roehrs, T., Shambroom, J., & Roth, T. (2013). Caffeine effects on sleep taken 0, 3, or 6 hours before going to bed. Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine.

[2] Gardiner and colleagues (2024/2025). Dose and timing effects of caffeine on subsequent sleep: a randomized clinical crossover trial. Sleep, 48, zsae230.

[3] Landolt, H. P., Werth, E., Borbély, A. A., & Dijk, D. J. (1995). Caffeine intake in the morning affects human sleep and EEG power spectra at night. Brain Research, 675, 67–74.

[1] Gollwitzer, P. M., & Brandstätter, V. (1997). Implementation intentions and effective goal pursuit. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 186–199.

[2] Sheeran, P., & Orbell, S. (1999). Implementation intentions and repeated behaviour. European Journal of Social Psychology, 29, 349–369.

[3] Milne, S., Orbell, S., & Sheeran, P. (2002). Combining motivational and volitional interventions to promote exercise participation. British Journal of Health Psychology, 7, 163–184.

[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Revisions to BLS data.

[2] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP release: additional information.

[3] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ALFRED: Download Data Help.

[1] World Gold Council. Gold ETF holdings and flows: definitions and methodology.

[2] World Gold Trust Services. SPDR Gold Shares: fund information.

[3] World Gold Trust Services (2014). How SPDR Gold Shares Are Created and Redeemed. SEC filing.

[1] U.S. SEC, Investor.gov. Types of Orders.

[2] U.S. SEC, Investor.gov. Executing an Order.

[3] U.S. SEC, Investor.gov. Investor Bulletin: Understanding Order Types.

[1] Federal Reserve Board. FOMC meeting calendars and information.

[2] Gürkaynak, R., Sack, B., & Swanson, E. (2004). Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Finance and Economics Discussion Series.

[3] Federal Reserve Board. FOMC materials.

[1] Yaniv, I., & Kleinberger, E. (2000). Advice taking in decision making: egocentric discounting and reputation formation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

[2] Yaniv, I. (2004). Receiving other people's advice: influence and benefit. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 93, 1–13.

[3] Soll, J. B., & Larrick, R. P. (2009). Strategies for revising judgment: how and how well people use others' opinions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition.

[1] Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453–458.

[2] Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47, 263–291.

[3] De Martino, B., Kumaran, D., Seymour, B., & Dolan, R. J. (2006). Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain. Science.

[1] Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124–140.

[2] Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: a study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 27–44.

[3] Garland, H. (1990). Throwing good money after bad: the effect of sunk costs on the decision to escalate commitment. Journal of Applied Psychology, 75, 728–731.

[1] Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance, 55, 773–806.

[2] Odean, T. (1999). Do Investors Trade Too Much? American Economic Review, 89, 1279–1298.

[3] Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261–292.

Scheinost et al. (2019), predictive modeling of individual differences in neuroimaging

Button et al. (2013), statistical power and neuroscience reliability

Wilson and Collins (2019), computational modeling of behavioral data

Holroyd and Coles (2002), neural basis of error processing

Hajcak, McDonald and Simons (2003), autonomic responses and error monitoring

Scheinost et al. (2019), predictive modeling of individual differences in neuroimaging

Hajcak, McDonald and Simons (2003), autonomic responses and error monitoring

Lo and Repin (2002), psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing

Venkatraman et al. (2011), sleep deprivation biases economic preferences

Laborde et al. (2017), heart rate variability measurement and reporting

Kromenacker et al. (2018), vagal mediation during slow breathing

Coates and Herbert (2008), endogenous steroids on a London trading floor

Helton and Russell (2011), working-memory load and vigilance decrement

Ariga and Lleras (2011), brief breaks and vigilance maintenance

Psychometric Curves Reveal Three Mechanisms of Vigilance Decrement (2021)

Kromenacker et al. (2018), vagal mediation during slow breathing

Blum et al. (2019), heart-rate variability biofeedback experiment

Laborde et al. (2017), heart rate variability measurement and reporting

Schwabe and Wolf (2011), stress shifts action control toward habit

Schwabe et al. (2011), beta-adrenergic modulation of stress-induced habits

Lo and Repin (2002), psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing