Evidence Library

Van Dongen et al. (2003), chronic sleep restriction and neurobehavioral performance

Venkatraman et al. (2011), sleep deprivation biases economic preferences

Gujar et al. (2011), sleep deprivation and reward network reactivity

London Bullion Market Association, LBMA Gold Price methodology

London Bullion Market Association, Precious Metals benchmark pricing

CME Group, Precious Metals futures and options contract overview

World Gold Council (2026), Central-bank gold demand Q2 2026

World Gold Council (2026), Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026

London Bullion Market Association, LBMA Gold Price methodology

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed constant-maturity yield DFII10

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year breakeven inflation rate T10YIE

Federal Reserve Board, October 2026 calendar and FOMC meeting

Bank for International Settlements (2025), Triennial FX market survey

World Gold Council (2026), Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026

London Bullion Market Association, LBMA Gold Price methodology

Barber and Odean (2008), attention and investor buying behavior

Helton and Russell (2011), working-memory load and vigilance decrement

Ariga and Lleras (2011), brief breaks and vigilance maintenance

Coates and Herbert (2008), endogenous steroids on a London trading floor

Lo and Repin (2002), psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing

Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988), experimental asset-market bubbles

Odean (1998), investors reluctant to realize losses

Kuhnen and Knutson (2005), neural basis of financial risk taking

Lo and Repin (2002), psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing

Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992), informational cascades

Barber and Odean (2008), attention and investor buying behavior

World Gold Council (2026), Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026

[1] Federal Reserve Board. FOMC meeting calendars and information.

Kandasamy N, Hardy B, Page L, et al. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2014;111(9):3608–3613. doi:10.1073/pnas.1317908111.

Cortisol, testosterone and financial risk taking (2015).

Venkatraman V, Huettel SA, Chuah LYM, Payne JW, Chee MWL. Sleep deprivation biases the neural mechanisms underlying economic preferences. Journal of Neuroscience. 2011;31(10):3712–3718. doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4407-10.2011.

[1] Federal Reserve Board. FOMC meeting calendars and information.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Monetary Policy: Principles and Practice. Official explanations of monetary-policy transmission, interest rates, inflation expectations and financial conditions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Market Expectations. Primary institutional research on market participants' expectations concerning monetary policy and economic conditions. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/survey_market_expectations

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Primary Dealers. Research on primary dealers' expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and financial-market conditions. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026). News Release Schedule. Official release calendar for gross domestic product, personal income, personal consumption expenditures and related economic indicators. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Economic News Release Schedule. Official publication calendar for inflation, employment and other economic indicators relevant to monetary-policy expectations. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED Economic Data — Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed constant-maturity yield DFII10

Federal Reserve / FRED, 10-year breakeven inflation rate T10YIE

World Gold Council. Goldhub Research — Gold, Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Drivers. Research and analytical material examining the relationship among gold, real yields, currencies and investment demand. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research

Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45 (2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x

Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34 (8), 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008

Hansen, L. P., & Sargent, T. J. (2008). Robustness . Princeton University Press. A theoretical foundation for decision-making under model uncertainty and imperfect economic knowledge.

Bernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. (2005). What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy? The Journal of Finance, 60 (3), 1221–1257. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00760.x

Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict? Statistical Science, 25 (3), 289–310. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330

Osler, C. L. (2003). Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: Explaining the success of technical analysis. The Journal of Finance, 58 (5), 1791–1820. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00588

Osler, C. L. (2005). Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24 (2), 219–241.

Harris, L. (1991). Stock price clustering and discreteness. The Review of Financial Studies, 4 (3), 389–415. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/4.3.389

Kandel, S., Sarig, O., & Wohl, A. (2001). Do investors prefer round stock prices? Evidence from Israeli IPO auctions. Journal of Banking & Finance, 25 (8), 1543–1551.

Biais, B., Hillion, P., & Spatt, C. (1995). An empirical analysis of the limit order book and the order flow in the Paris Bourse. The Journal of Finance, 50 (5), 1655–1689.

Cont, R., Stoikov, S., & Talreja, R. (2010). A stochastic model for order book dynamics. Operations Research, 58 (3), 549–563. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0780

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 (2), 263–291.

Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict? Statistical Science, 25 (3), 289–310. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330

Investing.com. XAU/USD Historical Data . Historical session reference: October 23, 2026. https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-historical-data

Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45 (2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x

Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34 (8), 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008

Brunnermeier, M. K., & Pedersen, L. H. (2009). Market liquidity and funding liquidity. Review of Financial Studies, 22 (6), 2201–2238. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn098

Adrian, T., & Shin, H. S. (2010). Liquidity and leverage. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19 (3), 418–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.12.002

Gârleanu, N., & Pedersen, L. H. (2011). Margin-based asset pricing and deviations from the law of one price. Review of Financial Studies, 24 (6), 1980–2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr027

Vayanos, D. (2004). Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk. NBER Working Paper No. 10327. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10327

World Gold Council. Goldhub Research — Gold, Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Drivers. Research and analytical material examining the relationship among gold, real yields, currencies and investment demand. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research

CME Group. Understanding margin and futures risk management. https://www.cmegroup.com/education.html

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED Economic Data: Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

LeDoux, J. E., & Pine, D. S. (2016). Using neuroscience to help understand fear and anxiety: A two-system framework. American Journal of Psychiatry, 173 (11), 1083–1093. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.16030353

Phelps, E. A., Lempert, K. M., & Sokol-Hessner, P. (2014). Emotion and decision making: Multiple modulatory neural circuits. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 37 , 263–287. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-neuro-071013-014119

Lo, A. W., & Repin, D. V. (2002). The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 14 (3), 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1162/089892902317361877

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 (2), 263–291.

Sokol-Hessner, P., Camerer, C. F., & Phelps, E. A. (2013). Emotion regulation reduces loss aversion and decreases amygdala responses to losses. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 8 (3), 341–350. https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nss002

McEwen, B. S. (2007). Physiology and neurobiology of stress and adaptation: Central role of the brain. Physiological Reviews, 87 (3), 873–904. https://doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00041.2006

Pessoa, L. (2017). A network model of the emotional brain. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 21 (5), 357–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2017.03.002

Laborde, S., Mosley, E., & Thayer, J. F. (2017). Heart rate variability and cardiac vagal tone in psychophysiological research: Recommendations for experiment planning, data analysis, and data reporting. Frontiers in Psychology, 8 , 213. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00213

[1] Cronbach and Meehl, Construct Validity in Psychological Tests

Shenhav, A., Botvinick, M. M., & Cohen, J. D. (2013). The expected value of control: An integrative theory of anterior cingulate cortex function. Neuron, 79 (2), 217–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2013.07.007

Phelps, E. A., Lempert, K. M., & Sokol-Hessner, P. (2014). Emotion and decision making: Multiple modulatory neural circuits. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 37 , 263–287. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-neuro-071013-014119

Miller, E. K., & Cohen, J. D. (2001). An integrative theory of prefrontal cortex function. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 24 , 167–202. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.neuro.24.1.167

Shenhav, A., Botvinick, M. M., & Cohen, J. D. (2013). The expected value of control: An integrative theory of anterior cingulate cortex function. Neuron, 79 (2), 217–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2013.07.007

Schultz, W., Dayan, P., & Montague, P. R. (1997). A neural substrate of prediction and reward. Science, 275 (5306), 1593–1599. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1593

Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992), informational cascades

Lim, J., & Dinges, D. F. (2010). A meta-analysis of the impact of short-term sleep deprivation on cognitive variables. Psychological Bulletin, 136 (3), 375–389. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018883

Laborde, S., Mosley, E., & Thayer, J. F. (2017). Heart rate variability and cardiac vagal tone in psychophysiological research: Recommendations for experiment planning, data analysis, and data reporting. Frontiers in Psychology, 8 , 213. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00213

[1] Cronbach and Meehl, Construct Validity in Psychological Tests

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 (2), 263–291.

Lo, A. W., & Repin, D. V. (2002). The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 14 (3), 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1162/089892902317361877

Pessoa, L. (2017). A network model of the emotional brain. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 21 (5), 357–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2017.03.002

Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict? Statistical Science, 25 (3), 289–310. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330

Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54 (4), 569–579. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569

Kahneman, D., & Klein, G. (2009). Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64 (6), 515–526. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016755

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 (2), 263–291.

[1] Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance, 55, 773–806.

Odean (1998), investors reluctant to realize losses

Schultz, W., Dayan, P., & Montague, P. R. (1997). A neural substrate of prediction and reward. Science, 275 (5306), 1593–1599. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1593

Lo, A. W., & Repin, D. V. (2002). The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 14 (3), 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1162/089892902317361877

Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict? Statistical Science, 25 (3), 289–310. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330

Miller, E. K., & Cohen, J. D. (2001). An integrative theory of prefrontal cortex function. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 24 , 167–202. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.neuro.24.1.167

Shenhav, A., Botvinick, M. M., & Cohen, J. D. (2013). The expected value of control: An integrative theory of anterior cingulate cortex function. Neuron, 79 (2), 217–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2013.07.007

Lo, A. W., & Repin, D. V. (2002). The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 14 (3), 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1162/089892902317361877

Lo, A. W., Repin, D. V., & Steenbarger, B. N. (2005). Fear and greed in financial markets: A clinical study of day-traders. American Economic Review, 95 (2), 352–359. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670095

Barsky, R. B., Epstein, C., Lafont-Mueller, A., & Yoo, Y. (2021). What drives gold prices? Chicago Fed Letter , No. 464. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2021-464

Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34 (8), 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008

O'Connor, F. A., Lucey, B. M., Batten, J. A., & Baur, D. G. (2015). The financial economics of gold: A survey. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41 , 186–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.07.005

Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict? Statistical Science, 25 (3), 289–310. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330

Shaffer, F., & Ginsberg, J. P. (2017). An overview of heart rate variability metrics and norms. Frontiers in Public Health, 5 , 258. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00258

Laborde, S., Mosley, E., & Thayer, J. F. (2017). Heart rate variability and cardiac vagal tone in psychophysiological research: Recommendations for experiment planning, data analysis, and data reporting. Frontiers in Psychology, 8 , 213. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00213

Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. (2017). Choosing prediction over explanation in psychology: Lessons from machine learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12 (6), 1100–1122. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617693393

World Gold Council. (2026). Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point Break . https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026